Real Estate Update – The Gardner Report

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park Counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Colorado economy continues to perform quite well, having added 72,200 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months — a solid growth rate of 2.7%. Through the first eight months of 2018, the state has added an average of 6,700 new jobs per month. There has been a modest slowdown in employment gains, but I really don’t think this is a cause for concern and still hold to my forecast that Colorado will add a total of 82,000 new jobs by the end of 2018.

In August, the state unemployment rate was 2.9%. This matches the level seen a year ago. Unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report rose between August 2017 and August 2018 but this is not actually a concern. Growth in the workforce is not only due to recent college graduates, but also discouraged workers who are starting to look for work again and this puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate. All of Colorado’s metropolitan areas are showing unemployment rates at around 4% or lower, suggesting that the regional economies are at, or close to, full employment.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the third quarter of 2018, 16,550 homes sold — a drop of 6.2% compared to the third quarter of 2017.
  • Sales rose in just two of the 11 counties contained in this report. Gilpin County again led the way, with sales rising by an impressive 21.1% compared to third quarter of last year. There was also a significant increase in Clear Creek County. Sales fell the most in Arapahoe County.
  • Slowing sales in the quarter can, to a degree, be attributed to continued home price growth, but I believe it is more a function of the rapid rise in the number of homes for sale. The number of listings in third quarter rose by 5.4% over the same period in 2017, but was up by 31.2% compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • What the numbers are telling us is that inventory growth is giving buyers more choice and they are being far more selective — and patient — before making an offer on a home.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Even with the rapid rise in listings and slowing home sales, prices continue to trend higher. The average home price in the region rose 7.9% year-over-year to $460,982. However, the average price dropped 4% between second and third quarters.
  • The smallest price gains in the region were in Park County, where prices rose by a fairly modest 3.6%.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Clear Creek County, where prices rose 10%. All other counties in this report saw gains relative to the third quarter of 2017.
  • Affordability is becoming an issue in many Colorado markets and this, in concert with rising inventory levels, has started to dampen home price growth. Although I do not expect prices to drop, I do think price gains will moderate over the next few quarters.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in Colorado remained at the same level as a year ago.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in three counties: Gilpin, Clear Creek, and Larimer. The rest of the counties in this report saw days on market rise by only a couple of days or less.
  • In the third quarter of 2018, it took an average of 24 days to sell a home. It took less than a month to sell a home in all but one county.
  • Housing demand is still solid and, as long as homes are priced appropriately, they will continue to sell in less time than historic averages.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the third quarter of 2018, I continue the trend that I started last quarter and have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. Listings are likely to continue their rising trend, but we should still see a seasonal drop off during the winter months. The market is clearly headed toward balance, which I am very pleased to see.

 

 

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on November 16, 2018 at 2:16 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts!

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Top 5

Greeley is the 5th-ranked city in the whole country for one year appreciation. This is according to the Federal Housing Finance Authority’s most recent quarterly report. They track close to 300 markets all over the U.S.

For the first time in a long time, the Fort Collins/Loveland market did not make the top 20 list- they came in ranked 76th.

Greeley’s appreciation over the last year was 12.63% and Fort Collins/Loveland’s was 7.98%.

Who was first? Boise, Idaho with 15.25%.

Who was last? Peoria, Illinois whose prices fell 1.26%.

What about other Colorado cities?

  • Colorado Springs – 14th @ 11.65%
  • Grand Junction – 16th @ 11.47%
  • Denver – 28th @ 10.18%
  • Boulder – 68th @ 8.25%

Overall, prices in the U.S. increased by an average of 6.9%. A couple of interesting side notes- a minimum of 11% was required to make the top-20, and 18 of the top 20 are in the Western U.S.

Grab a copy of my Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email me at phunter@windermere.com and I will send you a video which clarifies the process and my Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.

Posted on May 25, 2018 at 1:21 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts – 66% Off!

This just in…

For the month of April, the average price of a home in the city of Boulder was $1,247,000. This is according to the latest from our IRES MLS system.

If you want to own a home about an hour down the road in another really nice college town and get a 66% discount, you may want to check out Fort Collins 🙂

Yes, despite the recent uptick in prices here locally, we are still a bargain compared to Boulder. Here are median single-family prices for our markets and their relative price to Boulder:

  • Fort Collins = $414,237 (66.8% off)
  • Loveland = $360,150 (71.1% off)
  • Greeley = $290,000 (76.7% off)
  • Windsor = $306,450 (75.4% off)

Grab a copy of my Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email me at phunter@windermere.com and I will send you a video which clarifies the process and my Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.

Posted on May 11, 2018 at 2:36 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , , ,

The Latest Edition of THE SCOOP!

Check out the link below for interesting and helpful info on the Northern Colorado Real Estate Market!

The Scoop 1st Quarter 2018

Posted on April 16, 2018 at 3:23 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

The Scoop! Is Here

Check out this quarter’s edition of The Scoop! Our Northern Colorado Market report!

THE SCOOP!

Posted on February 19, 2018 at 4:59 am
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts!

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A Look Back

Here are some fun facts about 2017…

(By the way, be sure to RSVP for our Market Forecast on January 18th so you can hear our predictions for next year. Click HERE to register)

In 2017:

  • $4.6 billion of residential real estate was sold in Larimer and Weld Counties. ($2.8 in Larimer and $1.8 in Weld). This volume is double what is was in 2012.
  • There were 7,091 residential sales in Larimer County and 5,442, in Weld County.
  • On average, it took 53 days to sell a home in Larimer County and 49 days in Weld County. In 2012 it took about 25 days longer to sell a home.

To hear our predictions for the 2018 market, join our live Market Forecast event on January 18th at the Marriott in Fort Collins. Back by popular demand is Windermere’s Cheif Economist Matthew Gardner who will give you valuable and interesting insights into the real estate market. Reserve your spot at www.windermereforecast.com

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We have big news. Windermere is coming to Windsor!. Our newest branch office is right in the heart of downtown next door to The Hearth Restaurant and Toast Coffee. Watch for a grand opening in mid-January.

Posted on January 5, 2018 at 2:19 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Luxury Leaps

One of my favorite sources of data is the Fort Collins Board of Realtors monthly market report. Their newest release of information showed some interesting numbers on the luxury market and a confirmation of other statistics we are tracking.

The Luxury market is way up over last year.

In the greater Fort Collins area over the last 12 months, sales of single family homes priced between $1 million and $2 million, have leaped up 79% over last year. 24 total sales last year compared to 43 this year.

I included a screen shot from the report below…

I will take a deeper dive and closer look at the luxury market across all of Northern Colorado in our upcoming December Windermere Report (if you don’t already receive this monthly printed newsletter in your mailbox, let me know and I will add you to the list. Just contact me HERE.) 

Quarterly Market Report
Posted on November 20, 2017 at 2:13 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts – Long vs Short

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Short vs. Long

There are short-term questions about real estate and there are long term questions about real estate.

Clients often have short-term questions like…

How much will prices go up next year? Should I sell my house this Fall or next Spring? Will interest rates go up next week?

We encourage our clients to evaluate those questions in the context of the long-term. There are decades of data on the Northern Colorado market which reveal certain patterns.

When we show our clients these patterns they feel confident and secure in the investment they have made into their home and their rental properties.

For example, the long-term appreciation rates based on up to 41 years of research are as follows:

  • Larimer County = 5.36%
  • Weld County = 4.25%
  • Metro Denver = 5.56%

So over the course of a year prices may go up a lot or go up a little, but in the long term they will stay true to these long term averages.

To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact me to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.

Posted on October 27, 2017 at 1:42 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts!

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Inventory Is Up

For the past few years the hot topic in Northern Colorado real estate is inventory, or more specifically, lack of inventory.

Based on our current research, it looks like this trend is reversing.

Let’s look at the increase in inventory in our major markets versus a year ago…

  • Fort Collins up 28%
  • Loveland up 4%
  • Windsor up 37%
  • Greeley up 5%

This increase in is very good news for prospective buyers as now there are more homes to choose from.

To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact me to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.

Posted on October 20, 2017 at 1:56 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

Homecoming Win!

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Homecoming

It was homecoming weekend at CSU which means that alums from all over the Country were back to visit Northern Colorado.

So how does their real estate market stack up versus the place where they went to college?

Odds are, it’s not as good!

It turns out that there are only 9 metropolitan areas out of about 270 that have higher appreciation than Larimer County.

Interestingly, 3 of the 9 are in Washington and 2 of the 9 are in Oregon. So if they are visiting from the Pacific Northwest they probably have an even stronger market than here.

But pretty much everywhere else is below our market.

This is all according to the Federal Housing Finance Authority who tracks the nation’s real estate markets. They show that Larimer County has appreciated 12.08% in the last year which ranks 9th in the nation.

First place belongs to Mount Vernon, Washington at 15.14%. Last place is Atlantic City, N.J. which had a decrease of 0.77%.

CSU’s comeback in their homecoming game was amazing, and cheers to a healthy real estate market!

 

 

Posted on October 16, 2017 at 2:07 am
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Investment, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , ,