On Sale

On Sale

Money is on sale (again).

30-year mortgage rates now sit at 3.3%.

This is less than half of the long-term, 40-year average.

This is also almost a full percentage point lower than they were one year ago (which was still very low).

Let’s put this in real numbers.

A $300,000 loan at today’s rates has a $1,313 monthly principal and interest payment.

One year ago, that same loan would be $1,432 per month.

That’s a 8.3% difference in monthly payment.

The fact that money is on sale is one of many reasons that the housing market remains very strong right now.
At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

Posted on May 29, 2020 at 1:16 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , ,

Pent Up Demand

We notice a very interesting dynamic in the market right now.

There was clearly a pent-up real estate demand created during the recent time when in-person showings were not allowed. The numbers back it up.

First, a little background. During a portion of “Shelter in Place,” all in-person viewing of properties ceased. Instead, buyers spent time online viewing virtual tours and 3-D photography.

Even though clients could view homes virtually, purchase activity did slow down.

Today, showings are allowed again as long as clear protocols are followed. We’ve implemented a Safe Showings program to keep our clients protected.

Now, to the numbers.

Through the first two weeks of May 2020, the number of closed properties is down compared to the same time period in 2019.

In most cases these closed properties are a result of purchase agreements that were written in April- a time when in-person showings were restricted.

So, a decrease in closings was expected.

However, the number of new written contracts so far this month is up considerably compared to the same time frame last year.

Specifically,

• Metro Denver closed properties down 47%
• Metro Denver new contracts up 6%

• Northern Colorado closed properties down 41%
• Northern Colorado new contracts up 19%

So, buyer activity is up compared to last year, even in our current environment.
This speaks to the resiliency of our market and the effect of low interest rates.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed

Posted on May 15, 2020 at 10:10 am
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , ,

Inventory Drop

Inventory Drop

An impact we expected from COVID-19 to the housing market is reduced inventory.  That prediction is certainly proving to be true.

In March, the number of withdrawn properties from the MLS went up 68% in Larimer County and 38% in Weld when compared to March 2019.

Reduced inventory is one reason why we don’t expect a significant drop in home prices in 2020.  We don’t see a glut of housing supply dragging prices down.

So how are properties being sold now?  Virtually!  We are helping people view homes using virtual 3D Tours and live online walk-throughs.

Our business right now is certainly not business as usual and our industry has proven to be resourceful so we can still help people with urgent real estate needs.

 

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Shelter in Place and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are working at home, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

 

Posted on April 10, 2020 at 2:41 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , ,

Health Crisis not Housing Crisis

Here is the latest video from our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.

It’s full of great nuggets about what is happening in the economy and the real estate market today.  Just Click the image below to play the video.

Posted on April 3, 2020 at 3:08 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Seller Tips, Uncategorized | Tagged , , ,

Economist’s Perspective

Our Chief Economist made a video for all of our clients where he shares his perspective on COVID-19’s impact on

housing.  You can watch it by clicking the image below:

 

 

Posted on March 20, 2020 at 2:47 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , ,

Headwind Vs. Tailwind

Headwind vs. Tailwind

So far the tailwind of historically-low mortgage rates are prevailing over Wall Street and COVID-19 concerns.

Buyers are still active. Properties are still closing. Moving trucks are still showing up at people’s homes.

Open house traffic has declined, but we notice plenty of buyers looking for property. (one of our open houses last weekend had over 40 visitors)

For many, the interest rates are just too good to pass up.

We even see instances of multiple-offer situations for properties priced right in high-demand locations.

Rates today, compared to 4%, equate to not only a monthly savings for those refinancing but also equates to tens of thousands in additional purchase power.

For the average price of a home on the Front Range, the savings is $171 per month and the increased purchase power is $35,811.

Here’s what we expect to happen over the coming months. Listing inventory and transaction volume will both decline. We will no doubt see lower activity compared to a year ago.

But thoughts of the market “coming to a screeching halt” can’t be validated because of the historical performance of our market and because of the inherent fundamentals in place.

We will continue to track the numbers and communicate the facts so that you remain well-informed.

Posted on March 13, 2020 at 1:09 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Investment, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , ,

A History Lesson

With the stock market on a wild ride and the Dow Jones dropping nearly 1,000 points yesterday, it makes some people wonder if the local real estate market might also crash or at least “correct.”

A little history lesson is in order.

Over the last 40 years, the real estate market along the Front Range has averaged 5.5% appreciation per year.

The highest appreciation in one year was 15.9% in 1994.

The lowest ever was -4.0% in 1982.

The last time Wall Street was in turmoil and the stock market was plummeting was 2008.  This was, for many reasons, the worst economy of our lifetime.

That year real estate along the Front Range dropped 2.2%.

Meanwhile that year the Dow Jones fell 33.8%.

Bottom line, our market has no history of crashing or even experiencing a major correction.

Why is that?

The answer is fundamentals.

Our local economy has inherent fundamentals that insulate it from big downturns.

We have an incredibly diverse economy which is not reliant upon a single industry.  We have all the way from health care, to technology, agriculture, oil and gas, major universities, and financial services (just to name a few).

We are a global destination with a major international airport.

Oh, and the quality of life here isn’t too shabby.

Prices of real estate, just like prices of anything, come down to basic economic principles of supply and demand.

Because of our diverse economy and desirable quality of life, there has been strong, consistent demand for housing along the Front Range.

While there may be little bumps along the way, over the long term our market has proven that it performs.

 

Posted on March 6, 2020 at 1:49 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Investment, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , ,

How’s 2019?

How’s 2019?

A lot of my clients are asking how 2019 is starting off.

Here’s one thing we notice…

There are more homes to choose from, which is great news for buyers.

In January alone 4,821 homes came on the market in Metro Denver.

That is a 14% increase compared to one year ago.

At our annual Market Forecast, we predicted a more balanced market in 2019, so far it looks like we are trending that way.

If you would like to see a short video with a recap of our annual Market Forecast presentation, click the image below.


Posted on February 11, 2019 at 4:26 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

Fort Collins Real Estate: Dual Markets

You may hear how the market is still blazing fast and homes are selling in just days, and you may hear that the market is slowing down and it is becoming more normalized. Here’s the truth……both of those statements are true! We essentially have a tale of two markets in Fort Collins, the one under $500,000 and the one over $500,000. Check out the graph below to see how quickly homes are selling in the market UNDER $500,000.

Under $500k

Now check out what the average days on market over $500,000 in Fort Collins looks like, quite the difference!

Over $500k

This is NOT terrible news for the over $500,000 market by the way. Now more than ever it is important to stand out from the crowd if you have a more expensive home, and our Windermere Premier Certified Listing program can help you feel like you are still in the super hot market of this past spring.

If you ever have any questions for me, please don’t hesitate to give me a ring or shoot me an email. Have a great week!

Posted on September 10, 2018 at 2:03 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , , , ,

New Gardner Report

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado continues to see very strong job growth, adding 72,800 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months—an impressive increase of 2.7%. Through the first five months of 2018, the state added an average of 7,300 new jobs per month. I expect this growth to continue through the remainder of the year, resulting in about 80,000 new jobs in 2018.

In May, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%. This is slightly above the 2.6% we saw a year ago but still represents a remarkably low level. Unemployment remains either stable or is dropping in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Boulder, where just 2.2% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 3.1%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the second quarter of 2018, 17,769 homes sold—a drop of 2.4% compared to the second quarter of 2017.
  • Sales rose in 5 of the 11 counties contained in this report, with Gilpin County sales rising by an impressive 10.7% compared to second quarter of last year. There were also noticeable increases in Clear Creek and Weld Counties. Sales fell the most in Park County but, as this is a relatively small area, I see no great cause for concern at this time.
  • Slowing sales activity is to be expected given the low levels of available homes for sale in many of the counties contained in this report. That said, we did see some significant increases in listing activity in Denver and Larimer Counties. This should translate into increasing sales through the summer months.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth is being hobbled by a general lack of homes for sale, and due to a drop in housing demand.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • With strong economic growth and a persistent lack of inventory, prices continue to trend higher. The average home price in the region rose
    9.8% year-over-year to $479,943.
  • The smallest price gains in the region were in Park County, though the increase there was still a respectable 7%.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Clear Creek and Gilpin Counties, where prices rose by 28.9% and 26%, respectively. All other counties in this report saw gains above the long-term average.
  • Although there was some growth in listings, the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, driving home prices higher.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home remained at the same level as a year ago.
  • The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in most markets contained in this report. Gilpin County saw a very significant jump in days on market, but this can be attributed to the fact that it is a very small area which makes it prone to severe swings.
  • In the second quarter of 2018, it took an average of 24 days to sell a home. Of note is Adams County, where it took an average of only 10 days to sell a home.
  • Housing demand remains very strong and all the markets in this report continue to be in dire need of additional inventory to satisfy demand.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the second quarter of 2018, I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers as a few counties actually saw inventories rise. However, while I expect to see listings increase in the coming months, for now, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

 

Posted on August 3, 2018 at 2:00 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,