96.3 Miles Per Hour

96.3 Miles Per Hour

 

Pretend you have been driving on the Interstate at 100 miles per hour.

Also, pretend you have been doing that for a long time.

Now pretend you slow down to 96.3 miles per hour.

How would that feel?

Probably just a little slower?

96.3 miles per hour is a 3.7% decrease from 100. It may feel slower, but it’s still pretty fast.

How does this relate to real estate?

Well, the market has been moving fast for a long time.

It’s been going 100 miles per hour for at least two years (some would argue even longer).

We’ve recently seen a 3.7% change in terms of number of transactions that are occurring.

There were 3.7% fewer sales in September 2018 versus September 2017 in Fort Collins.

It feels slower because we’ve been driving so fast for so long. But, our market is still moving.

For example, prices are still up. So, remember, that it’s all relative.

Posted on November 12, 2018 at 2:06 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

New Home Starts

What’s Starting?

Here are some interesting stats from our friends at Metro Study who study new home activity along the Front Range.

  • New home starts are up 14% compared to last year – this is really good news and is helping to relieve the shortage of housing inventory
  • Every product type saw an increase in starts compared to last year (single family, townhome and condominium)
  • Condominiums saw the largest increase in starts by a long shot, up 112% over last year- this is excellent news for first time buyers and those looking for product in lower price ranges.

Any questions about this stuff? Give me a ring or shoot me an email and I can buy you a cup of coffee!

Posted on October 8, 2018 at 1:05 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts – Appreciation

Posted on September 21, 2018 at 1:54 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

New Gardner Report

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado continues to see very strong job growth, adding 72,800 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months—an impressive increase of 2.7%. Through the first five months of 2018, the state added an average of 7,300 new jobs per month. I expect this growth to continue through the remainder of the year, resulting in about 80,000 new jobs in 2018.

In May, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%. This is slightly above the 2.6% we saw a year ago but still represents a remarkably low level. Unemployment remains either stable or is dropping in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Boulder, where just 2.2% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 3.1%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the second quarter of 2018, 17,769 homes sold—a drop of 2.4% compared to the second quarter of 2017.
  • Sales rose in 5 of the 11 counties contained in this report, with Gilpin County sales rising by an impressive 10.7% compared to second quarter of last year. There were also noticeable increases in Clear Creek and Weld Counties. Sales fell the most in Park County but, as this is a relatively small area, I see no great cause for concern at this time.
  • Slowing sales activity is to be expected given the low levels of available homes for sale in many of the counties contained in this report. That said, we did see some significant increases in listing activity in Denver and Larimer Counties. This should translate into increasing sales through the summer months.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth is being hobbled by a general lack of homes for sale, and due to a drop in housing demand.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • With strong economic growth and a persistent lack of inventory, prices continue to trend higher. The average home price in the region rose
    9.8% year-over-year to $479,943.
  • The smallest price gains in the region were in Park County, though the increase there was still a respectable 7%.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Clear Creek and Gilpin Counties, where prices rose by 28.9% and 26%, respectively. All other counties in this report saw gains above the long-term average.
  • Although there was some growth in listings, the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, driving home prices higher.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home remained at the same level as a year ago.
  • The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in most markets contained in this report. Gilpin County saw a very significant jump in days on market, but this can be attributed to the fact that it is a very small area which makes it prone to severe swings.
  • In the second quarter of 2018, it took an average of 24 days to sell a home. Of note is Adams County, where it took an average of only 10 days to sell a home.
  • Housing demand remains very strong and all the markets in this report continue to be in dire need of additional inventory to satisfy demand.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the second quarter of 2018, I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers as a few counties actually saw inventories rise. However, while I expect to see listings increase in the coming months, for now, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

 

Posted on August 3, 2018 at 2:00 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts

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Is There A Bubble?

Economists say there are three reasons why we aren’t in a housing bubble today.

The first reason they mention is the amount of new home construction compared to the 2006 housing bubble.

Today, along the Front Range, new home starts are down 38% compared to 2006. This is despite a much higher population than 12 years ago.

A major factor that caused the bubble was the glut of new construction inventory which doesn’t exist today.

Metrostudy, a leading new home research firm, says that Front Range builders need to have built 30,000 more new homes over the last 5 years to keep up with demand.

To see the whole story about our market along with other stats and trends, watch the recording of Tuesday’s Windermere Workshop right here.

If you want to be totally clear on all the stats, facts and trends in Colorado real estate so that you know what the future value of your home looks like, watch this video.

This is a complimentary service for our clients and friends.

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See all the latest facts, stats and trends of the Colorado market from the comfort of your own laptop.

Watch the Windermere Workshop video for a mid-year market update.

Posted on July 20, 2018 at 3:03 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts! I-25 Edition

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Relief on The Way!

There is good news and bad news.

The good news is I-25 traffic relief is on the way. The bad news is we will have to live through three summers of construction before it’s done.

Did you know the 26 miles between Highway 14 in Fort Collins and Highway 66 in Longmont Interstate 25 serves more than 45,000 cars per day? Wow!

Part of that stretch of interstate will get a third lane starting this summer. Construction is set to begin next month that will add a third lane between Highway 14 and Highway 402.

The project is happening 14 years ahead of schedule thanks to additional funding from several sources including the Cities of Fort Collins and Loveland. The first step we will notice is construction on the I 25/Highway 34 intersection.

This is great news for our region that will bring much needed relief. We will all just need to be a little patient while the work is being done.

Grab a copy of my Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email me at phunter@windermere.comand I will send you a video which clarifies the process and my Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.

Posted on May 18, 2018 at 1:03 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

The New Gardner Report

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

It’s good news for the state of Colorado, which saw annual employment grow in all of the metropolitan markets included in this report. The state added 63,400 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, an impressive growth rate of 2.4%. Colorado has been adding an average of 5,300 new jobs per month for the past year, and I anticipate that this growth rate will continue through the balance of 2018.

In February, the unemployment rate in Colorado was 3.0%—a level that has held steady for the past six months. Unemployment has dropped in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Denver, where 3.1% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 4.6%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the first quarter of 2018, there were 11,173 home sales—a drop of 5.6% when compared to the first quarter of 2017.
  • With an increase of 5.3%, home sales rose the fastest in Boulder County, as compared to first quarter of last year. There was also a modest sales increase of 1.2% in Larimer County. Sales fell in all the other counties contained within this report.
  • Home sales continue to slow due to low inventory levels, which were down 5.7% compared to a year ago.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth continues to stagnate due to the lack of homes for sale.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Strong economic growth, combined with limited inventory, continued to push prices higher. The average home price in the markets covered by this report was up by 11.7% year-over-year to $448,687.
  • Arapahoe County saw slower appreciation in home values, but the trend is still positiveand above its long-term average.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Boulder County, which saw prices rise 14.8%. Almost all other counties in this report experienced solid gains.
  • The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists and home prices continue to appreciate at above-average rates.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by three days when compared to the first quarter of 2017.
  • Homes in all but two counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out where it took an average of just 17 days to sell a home.
  • During the first quarter, it took an average of 27 days to sell a home. That rate is down 2 days from the fourth quarter of 2017.
  • Housing demand remains strong and would-be buyers should expect to see stiff competition for well-positioned, well-priced homes.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. In the first quarter of 2018, I have left the needle where it was in the fourth quarter of last year. Even as interest rates trend higher, it appears as if demand will continue to outweigh supply. As we head into the spring months, I had hoped to see an increase in the number of homes for sale, but so far that has not happened. As a result, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

 

 

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on May 7, 2018 at 5:19 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts!

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18 Days

We now measure inventory levels in terms of days. Typically we measure in months. For instance, a “balanced market” is when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory currently for sale. Meaning that, in a balanced market, it would take 4 to 6 months to sell every home that is currently on the market.

Anything less than 4 months is a seller’s market. Certainly, when we measure in days, we are in an extreme seller’s market.

Today the Greeley market has 18 days of inventory, Fort Collins has 27 days, Loveland has 30, and Windsor has 51.

These are all lower than a year ago. For example, Greeley at this time last year had 27 days of inventory.

But this statistic can be misleading. Sometimes people assume that the extreme seller’s market applies to all price ranges and all locations.

Not true. When we drill down we find sub-patterns that are revealing. For example, homes in Loveland priced over $500,000 have 3 months of inventory and homes in Fort Collins over $750,000 have 5 months.

Because inventory levels tend to increase as prices increase, there becomes a distinct advantage for the move up buyer. Today, many people can sell in an extreme seller’s market and move up to a price range with less competition and more selection.

If our active market has you thinking about investing in real estate in Northern Colorado. Check this out…

Grab a copy of our Investment Kit so you can see the simple steps to get started without stress or complication. Email me at phunter@windermere.comand I will send you a video which clarifies the process and our Investment Checklist so you can see what to do first.

Get our Investment Kit…

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Welcome to Friday Fun Facts!

Posted on April 13, 2018 at 1:24 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

Greeley Is Growing!

 

In case you had not noticed, there is a lot of growth in Northern Colorado! We are seeing population growth without nearly the amount of building as we did pre-recession (we are still at only about 60% of the new home starts as compared to before the recession, even though it can look like they are building everywhere). That is currently driving the appreciation and rental rates in Greeley to an even higher extent than Fort Collins, Loveland, and Windsor. Check out this article below that talks in more detail about how Greeley is ranked third in the nation for growth.

LINK TO BIZ WEST ARTICLE

Any more questions about Greeley? Give me a ring!

Posted on March 26, 2018 at 1:22 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts!

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Top 4/Bottom 4

At the end of this weekend College Basketball’s Final 4 will be established. It might make you wonder, what the top 4 and bottom 4 real estate markets across the country?

Here they are, ranked by the last 12 months of appreciation according to fhfa.gov:

Top 4:

  1. Tacoma, WA 14.6%
  2. Seattle, WA 14.3%
  3. Port St. Lucie, FL 13.7%
  4. Las Vegas, NV 13.6%

Bottom 4:

  1. Atlantic, NJ -3.14%
  2. Peoria, IL -3.0%
  3. Huntington, WV -2.6%
  4. Jackson, MS -1.2%

Welcome to Friday Fun Facts!

Thanks for checking out this week’s Friday Fun Facts!

These little nuggets of information are designed to inform, education and entertain you. I promise to give you some solid takeaways, based on real life with information that will keep you up-to-date. CONTACT ME FOR MORE MARKET INFO

Posted on March 23, 2018 at 1:31 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,