Caught Up

We’ve been waiting for June to catch up. It finally happened (almost).

Back in April, real estate activity was significantly limited and the showing of property was restricted which caused the number of closed properties in May and early June to be much lower than last year.

Bottom line, fewer properties going under contract in April caused fewer closings 30 to 45 days later.

Closed properties in May were down compared to 2019 by 44% in Northern Colorado and 43% in Metro Denver.

Then activity jumped significantly in May. The number of properties going under contract was way up compared to last year.

We’ve been wondering when we would see this sales activity reflected in the number of closed properties.

Well, it finally happened (almost).

The number of closings so far in June compared to the same time period through June of 2019 is only down 1.8% in Northern Colorado and 1.6% in Metro Denver.

In both markets, there are only a handful of closings separating activity in June 2020 versus June 2019.

By the end of the month, when all the transactions are tallied up, we expect that June of this year will out pace June of last year in terms of number of transactions.

This is significant not only because of COVID-19, but also because of the reduced inventory compared to last year. Quite simply, there are fewer homes to buy.
All of this speaks to the health and resiliency of the Front Range market.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

Posted on June 26, 2020 at 1:35 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Homes for Sale, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Rate Meaning

Mortgage interest rates have hit another record low this week.

Mortgage applications for purchases just hit an 11-year high.

Rates are at a level that many people could never have imagined.

Here’s something that is surprising to many people…

Rates are 1.5% lower than they were just two years ago.

Here’s what that means for buyers…

Pretend someone is looking at a $500,000 home and they will have a 20% down payment.

The difference in monthly payment is $320 between two years ago and today.

Obviously that is a significant amount of money.

Imagine what a person could do with $320 per month.

The fact that rates are at record lows is one of many reasons that the market is so strong right now and prices continue to appreciate at healthy levels.

Posted on June 19, 2020 at 12:24 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

Tight Inventory

The numbers that we find to be most interesting right now are all related to inventory.

Long story short, inventory is tight.

It was already tight pre-coronavirus and now it’s even tighter.

Here are the numbers.

Active properties for sale versus one year ago are down:
11% in Larimer County
20% in Weld County
26% in Metro Denver

This low inventory is one of several reasons that prices are generally still up across the Front Range.
At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

Posted on June 12, 2020 at 12:55 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , , ,

Prices Still Up

It seems that COVID-19 did not cause prices to decrease and certainly didn’t cause them to crash.

Average prices are up compared to last year:
2.8% in Larimer County
5.4% in Weld County
3.3% in Metro Denver

Low supply, sustained demand, and incredibly low interest rates are all fueling the price growth.
At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

Posted on June 5, 2020 at 2:34 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Investment, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , ,

Faster

 

Here’s something true about today’s market. Properties are selling fast.

Compared to one year ago, the number of days it takes for a property to sell is significantly lower.

The industry term is “Days on Market” or DOM.

DOM is way down.

Here is the comparison of May 2020 versus May 2019:

• Metro Denver down 22%
• Larimer County down 19%
• Weld County down 16%

Initially, this may seem counter-intuitive. How could homes be selling faster in today’s environment?

Here’s the deal. The buyers and sellers who are active in today’s market are serious.

There really aren’t ‘tire-kicker’ buyers out looking at properties just for the fun of it.

There really aren’t sellers testing the market to ‘see what they can get.’

For the most part, buyers and sellers are on a specific mission and this mindset is showing up in the numbers.

For sellers especially, this is no time to test the market and be overly aggressive on price.

Properties that are priced right and in good condition are selling and often selling fast.

 

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

Posted on May 22, 2020 at 12:50 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , , , ,

What the Numbers Say

April represents the first time we can look at the impact of COVID-19 on a full month of real estate activity.

To no one’s surprise, activity in April in terms of closings and new contracts did slow significantly.

Much of this slowing was caused by in person showings not being allowed for most of the month. (showings are now allowed again by following Safe Showings protocols)

Here’s what the numbers say…

Closed transactions were down compared to April 2019
• 26% in Northern Colorado (Larimer & Weld)
• 27% in Metro Denver

New written purchase agreements were down compared to April 2020
• 48% in Northern Colorado
• 44% in Metro Denver

So, while activity did slow, there was nothing resembling a “screeching halt” that took place.
While the way property is shown has certainly changed, the market is still very active and we expect activity to increase even more with showings now being allowed again.

Posted on May 8, 2020 at 12:31 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , ,

Why No Crash

This week we hosted our clients and friends for a special online event with our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.

Matthew talked about a variety of topics that are on people’s mind right now including home values.

Matthew sees no evidence that home values will crash and actually sees signs that they may rise this year nationally.

Here’s why he says this:
• Mortgage rates will remain under 3.5% for the rest of the year so there won’t be any interest-rate pressure on prices
• Inventory, which was already at record-lows, will drop even further keeping the supply levels far below normal
• New home construction will continue to be under-supplied and will be nothing like the over-supplied glut of inventory that we saw in 2008
• The vast majority of employees being laid off and furloughed are renters
• Home owners have a tremendous amount of equity in their homes right now compared to 2008 which will prevent an influx of short sales and foreclosures

If you would like to receive a recording of the webinar we would be happy to send it to you. Feel free to reach out and ask for the link.

Posted on April 24, 2020 at 1:23 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Investment, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , , ,

New Gardner Report!

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy continues to grow with the addition of 44,800 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months. This represents a reasonable growth rate of 1.7%. As stated in last quarter’s Gardner Report, we continue to see a modest slowdown in employment gains, but that’s to be expected at this stage of the business cycle. I predict that employment growth in Colorado will pick back up as we move through the year, adding a total of 70,000 new jobs in 2019, which represents a growth rate of 2.6%.

In February, the state unemployment rate was 3.7%, up from 2.9% a year ago. The increase is essentially due to labor force growth, which rose by more than 84,000 people over the past year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report haven’t moved much in the past year, but Boulder saw a modest drop (2.7%), and the balance of the state either remained at the same level as a year ago or rose very modestly.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the first quarter of 2019, 11,164 homes sold — a drop of 3% compared to the first quarter of 2018 and down 13.5% from the fourth quarter of last year. Pending sales in the quarter were a mixed bag. Five counties saw an increase, but five showed signs of slowing.
  • The only market that had sales growth was Adams, which rose 4.9%. The rest of the counties contained in this report saw sales decline, with a significant drop in the small Park County area.
  • I believe the drop in the number of home sales is partially due to the significant increase in listings (+45.6%), which has given would-be home buyers more choice and less need to act quickly.
  • As mentioned above, inventory growth in the quarter was significant, but I continue to believe that the market will see sales rise. I expect the second half of the year to perform better than the first.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, but the rate of growth is tapering. The average home price in the region rose just 2.1% year-over-year to $456,243. Home prices were .3% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2018.
  • I anticipate that the drop in interest rates early in the year will likely get more buyers off the fence and this will allow prices to rise.
  • Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 21.9%. We still attribute this rapid increase to it being a small market. Only Clear Creek County experienced a drop in average home price. Similar to Park County, this is due to it being a very small market, making it more prone to significant swings.
  • Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets but that may be offset by the drop in interest rates.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in Colorado rose five days compared to the first quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in two counties — Gilpin and Park — compared to the first quarter of 2018. The rest of the counties in this report saw days-on-market rise modestly with the exception of the small Clear Creek market, which rose by 26 days.
  • In the first quarter of 2019, it took an average of 42 days to sell a home in the region, an increase of four days compared to the final quarter of 2018.
  • Job growth drives housing demand, but buyers are faced with more choice and are far less frantic than they were over the past few years. That said, I anticipate the late spring will bring more activity and sales.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the first quarter of 2019, I have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I am watching listing activity closely to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth; however, the trend for 2019 will continue towards a more balanced market.

 

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Posted on May 2, 2019 at 3:13 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Johnstown Real Estae, Longmont Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

Tax Time!

It’s Tax Time

You probably don’t need a reminder that this is tax season.

Not only because tax returns are due in two weeks but also because you will soon receive your property tax notification in the mail.

Every two years your County re-assesses the value of your property and then sends that new value to you.

When this happens, many of my clients:

  • Don’t agree with the new assessed value
  • Aren’t sure what to do
  • Are confused by the process
  • Want to save money on property taxes

Good news!  I have a webinar that will help you.  On the webinar we will show you:

  • How to read the information from the County
  • What it means for you
  • How to protest the valuation if you want
  • How to get an accurate estimate of your property’s value

You can listen to the webinar live or get the recording.  In any case, you can sign up at www.WindermereWorkshop.com  

The webinar is April 17th at 10:00.  If you can’t join live, go ahead and register so you can automatically receive the recording.

This is a complimentary online workshop for all of my clients.  I hope you can join!

Posted on April 2, 2019 at 1:08 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Johnstown Real Estae, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

How’s 2019?

How’s 2019?

A lot of my clients are asking how 2019 is starting off.

Here’s one thing we notice…

There are more homes to choose from, which is great news for buyers.

In January alone 4,821 homes came on the market in Metro Denver.

That is a 14% increase compared to one year ago.

At our annual Market Forecast, we predicted a more balanced market in 2019, so far it looks like we are trending that way.

If you would like to see a short video with a recap of our annual Market Forecast presentation, click the image below.


Posted on February 11, 2019 at 4:26 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,