How Much?

So how much real estate is sold in Northern Colorado?

As it turns out, a lot!

Last month alone there were 1,099 single family homes that sold in Larimer and Weld Counties

The average price was $429,144 which means the total sales volume for one month was $471,629,129 (almost a half a billion)!

Over the last 12 months, just over $4.5 billion worth of single-family homes have sold.

That’s a lot of real estate!

Posted on August 16, 2019 at 1:30 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Friday Fun Facts, Seller Tips

What We Notice

Here are some observations we have about the market right now:

  • Inventory is up, price reductions are up, the length of time to sell a home is up
  • Seller concessions are more prevalent
  • Sellers are more willing to accept contingent offers (especially in higher price ranges)
  • If a home doesn’t sell within a week, it often becomes stigmatized by the market and potential buyers assume there must be something wrong with it
  • Homes that likely would have sold within hours a year ago, are now sitting on the market
  • Condition is super-important as buyers become even more picky
  • Pricing a property correctly on day one is paramount
  • Sellers who over-price their property are finding themselves chasing the market
Posted on August 2, 2019 at 1:56 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Seller Tips

The Scoop – 3rd Quarter 2019

WELCOME TO “THE SCOOP”

Everything You Need to Know About the Northern Colorado Real Estate Market – Produced Quarterly by Windermere Real Estate in Northern Colorado

The 10-Year Rhythm

As we study 40 years of price appreciation data for Larimer County, an interesting pattern emerges.  We call this pattern the 10-Year Rhythm.  It shows that price appreciation in ten-year segments tends to closely mirror the 40-year average of 5.42%.  This demonstrates that our market grows in a steady, predictable way instead of taking wild swings like other markets.

Long Term Home Prices

A trusted resource is the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA) which tracks nearly 300 markets across the country and produces a quarterly price appreciation index.

Larimer County

Weld County

State Ranking

According to the Federal Housing Finance Authority, these are the top 5 states for home price appreciation over the last 5 years:

A Mile High

Did you know our state grows by a Mile-High Stadium’s-worth of people each year?  That’s right, we’ve been growing by about 75,000 people each year, and we will keep growing.  The State Demography office estimates we will have 7.5 million people living here by 2040.

Market Speedometer

Each quarter. our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner produces his economic report for Metro Denver and Northern Colorado. Inside you will find his market speedometer. This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

According to Gardner, “I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers as a few Front Range counties saw home inventories rise. However, while I expect to see listings increase in the coming months, for now, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.”

Rental Numbers

What’s Up With Down Rates

It was only a few months ago when experts predicted that 30-year mortgage rates would hit five percent by the end of 2019. For many, it was a foregone conclusion. At the end of 2018, they were already in the high fours. It appeared as if the low interest rate party was over. Then along came mid-2019 and rates kept going lower and lower. Now they are in the high threes and back to where they were in the fall of 2016. What gives? It turns out that trade tensions between the

U.S. and China have caused concerns about a global economic slowdown which, in turn, have pushed rates lower. Lower rates are of course great news for buyers and people thinking about refinancing.

A Unique Solution

Windermere Listings

 

Posted on July 25, 2019 at 7:29 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Johnstown Real Estae, Johnstown Real Estate, Longmont Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate

Over List

A statistic we keep our eye on is the percentage of homes which sell for at least list price.

In a robust, healthy, market with lower inventory, we will frequently see homes selling for their asking price or even higher.

Here are the number of sales that occur for list price or higher in each of our major markets:

Fort Collins = 60%
Loveland = 60%
Greeley = 71%
Windsor = 56%

There are a couple of things we notice about these numbers. First, well over half of all sales are for at least list price. This means that a buyer needs to be prepared to make a full price offer (or higher) in most cases. This also means that if a seller is priced right and marketed effectively, they should achieve their asking price.

We also notice that these percentages are lower than one year ago. In 2018 these numbers were 5% to 10% higher in each market. This is good news for buyers of course because the bidding wars are not as intense as last year.

Posted on June 28, 2019 at 2:38 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Seller Tips

Where Is The Inventory?

There are 6,331 single-family homes for sale in Metro Denver.

If we look at inventory broken out by price range, there are some interesting take-aways.

Only 15% of the inventory is priced under $400,000
35% of the inventory is priced between $500,000 and $750,000. This price range represents the largest amount of homes for sale.
And would you believe, there are more single-family homes for sale priced over $1,000,000 than priced under $400,000.

If you are curious to know what the value of your home is in today’s market, we’d be happy to show that to you.

Posted on June 14, 2019 at 7:39 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Real Estate, Seller Tips

The Latest

Here’s the latest from the Federal Housing Finance Authority’s report on price appreciation. They track 241 markets across the country. These are the one-year price growth numbers for the Colorado cities on their list:

Boulder = 6.14%
Colorado Springs = 9.18%
Denver = 6.97%
Fort Collins = 6.43%
Greeley = 7.06%

So, even though the pace of sales is going down, prices overall are still going up.

Even in today’s growing market, we do notice that in certain price ranges, in certain locations, sellers are having to reduce their price to attract offers on their homes.

What we know is that all markets are local and there are trends that occur on a micro level that sometimes differ than the overall macro trends.

If you are curious to know what the value of your home is in today’s market, we’d be happy to show that to you.

Posted on June 7, 2019 at 2:14 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Seller Tips

New Home News

Nationally, sales of new homes are stronger than they have been in a long time. March was the best month since 2007 and April was the third-best month in that same time period.

This research comes from the National Association of Home Builders who show that we are on pace to sell 673,000 new homes this year across the Country. 5 years ago there were roughly 450,000 sales of new homes.

For the first four months of 2019, new home sales are 6.7% ahead of the sales pace of the initial four months of 2018.

What is interesting is that those gains have distinct regional clustering. Year-to-date sales are up 10.3% in the South, 6.7% in the West (concentrated in the Mountain states), and 1.3% in the Midwest, while recording a 17.6% decline in the Northeast.

Posted on May 31, 2019 at 1:44 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Buyer Tips, Seller Tips | Tagged , , ,

The Question of the Day

As we are helping people understand their new property assessments and putting together information so that they may protest their new valuation, here is the most common question we hear…

Did my property really go up that much?

Here are some stats that will help you answer that question.

First, you need to know that property assessments are done by the County every two years. So, as you look at how much your property increased in value according to the County, keep in mind that this increase is over a two-year period.

Next, it will help you to know how much our markets increased, on average, over the last two years. This data comes from our most trusted source, the Federal Housing Finance Authority.

Two Year Appreciation:

Metro Denver = 18.65%
Larimer County = 17.60%
Weld County = 22.31%
Boulder County = 16.28%

If you have questions about your new valuation or how to protest your property’s assessment, we would be happy to help. Just reach out and let us know.

Posted on May 17, 2019 at 1:57 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: Seller Tips | Tagged ,

New Gardner Report!

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy continues to grow with the addition of 44,800 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months. This represents a reasonable growth rate of 1.7%. As stated in last quarter’s Gardner Report, we continue to see a modest slowdown in employment gains, but that’s to be expected at this stage of the business cycle. I predict that employment growth in Colorado will pick back up as we move through the year, adding a total of 70,000 new jobs in 2019, which represents a growth rate of 2.6%.

In February, the state unemployment rate was 3.7%, up from 2.9% a year ago. The increase is essentially due to labor force growth, which rose by more than 84,000 people over the past year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report haven’t moved much in the past year, but Boulder saw a modest drop (2.7%), and the balance of the state either remained at the same level as a year ago or rose very modestly.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the first quarter of 2019, 11,164 homes sold — a drop of 3% compared to the first quarter of 2018 and down 13.5% from the fourth quarter of last year. Pending sales in the quarter were a mixed bag. Five counties saw an increase, but five showed signs of slowing.
  • The only market that had sales growth was Adams, which rose 4.9%. The rest of the counties contained in this report saw sales decline, with a significant drop in the small Park County area.
  • I believe the drop in the number of home sales is partially due to the significant increase in listings (+45.6%), which has given would-be home buyers more choice and less need to act quickly.
  • As mentioned above, inventory growth in the quarter was significant, but I continue to believe that the market will see sales rise. I expect the second half of the year to perform better than the first.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, but the rate of growth is tapering. The average home price in the region rose just 2.1% year-over-year to $456,243. Home prices were .3% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2018.
  • I anticipate that the drop in interest rates early in the year will likely get more buyers off the fence and this will allow prices to rise.
  • Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 21.9%. We still attribute this rapid increase to it being a small market. Only Clear Creek County experienced a drop in average home price. Similar to Park County, this is due to it being a very small market, making it more prone to significant swings.
  • Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets but that may be offset by the drop in interest rates.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in Colorado rose five days compared to the first quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in two counties — Gilpin and Park — compared to the first quarter of 2018. The rest of the counties in this report saw days-on-market rise modestly with the exception of the small Clear Creek market, which rose by 26 days.
  • In the first quarter of 2019, it took an average of 42 days to sell a home in the region, an increase of four days compared to the final quarter of 2018.
  • Job growth drives housing demand, but buyers are faced with more choice and are far less frantic than they were over the past few years. That said, I anticipate the late spring will bring more activity and sales.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the first quarter of 2019, I have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I am watching listing activity closely to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth; however, the trend for 2019 will continue towards a more balanced market.

 

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Posted on May 2, 2019 at 3:13 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Johnstown Real Estae, Longmont Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

Tax Time!

It’s Tax Time

You probably don’t need a reminder that this is tax season.

Not only because tax returns are due in two weeks but also because you will soon receive your property tax notification in the mail.

Every two years your County re-assesses the value of your property and then sends that new value to you.

When this happens, many of my clients:

  • Don’t agree with the new assessed value
  • Aren’t sure what to do
  • Are confused by the process
  • Want to save money on property taxes

Good news!  I have a webinar that will help you.  On the webinar we will show you:

  • How to read the information from the County
  • What it means for you
  • How to protest the valuation if you want
  • How to get an accurate estimate of your property’s value

You can listen to the webinar live or get the recording.  In any case, you can sign up at www.WindermereWorkshop.com  

The webinar is April 17th at 10:00.  If you can’t join live, go ahead and register so you can automatically receive the recording.

This is a complimentary online workshop for all of my clients.  I hope you can join!

Posted on April 2, 2019 at 1:08 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Johnstown Real Estae, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,