Friday Fun Facts!

Posted on March 8, 2019 at 2:18 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

How’s 2019?

How’s 2019?

A lot of my clients are asking how 2019 is starting off.

Here’s one thing we notice…

There are more homes to choose from, which is great news for buyers.

In January alone 4,821 homes came on the market in Metro Denver.

That is a 14% increase compared to one year ago.

At our annual Market Forecast, we predicted a more balanced market in 2019, so far it looks like we are trending that way.

If you would like to see a short video with a recap of our annual Market Forecast presentation, click the image below.


Posted on February 11, 2019 at 4:26 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

The Gardner Report

Check out the latest Gardner Report from Windermere’s Economist Matthew Gardner by clicking the picture below!

Posted on February 4, 2019 at 1:59 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

The Misery Index


Last week at our Market Forecast events, Chief Economist Matthew Gardner shared, among many stats, his famous “Misery Index.”

A valuable statistic with a funny title.

The Misery Index simply measures inflation plus unemployment.

It’s an effective way to look at our Nation’s economy.

Today’s Index sits just below 6%. Back in October 2011, it was close to 13%.

The lowest it has been in the last 7 years is October 2015 when it was near 5%.

________________________________________

If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to me.

I would be happy to put it in your hands.

Posted on January 28, 2019 at 3:34 am
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

The Scoop Is Here!

 

Check out our latest quarterly market report, The Scoop! by clicking below. If you have any questions about the data please shoot me an email or give me a call!

The Scoop 4th Quarter 2018

Posted on January 21, 2019 at 2:10 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

2019 Economic and Housing Forecast Preview

2019 Economic and Housing Forecast 
By Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate 

What a year it has been for both for the U.S. economy and the national housing market. After several years of above-average economic and home price growth, 2018 marked the start of a slowdown in the residential real estate market. As the year comes to a close, it’s time for me to dust off my crystal ball to see what we can expect in 2019.

The U.S. Economy

Despite the turbulence that the ongoing trade wars with China are causing, I still expect the U.S. economy to have one more year of relatively solid growth before we likely enter a recession in 2020. Yes, it’s the dreaded “R” word, but before you panic, there are some things to bear in mind.

Firstly, any cyclical downturn will not be driven by housing. Although it is almost impossible to predict exactly what will be the “straw that breaks the camel’s back”, I believe it will likely be caused by one of the following three things: an ongoing trade war, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates too quickly, or excessive corporate debt levels. That said, we still have another year of solid growth ahead of us, so I think it’s more important to focus on 2019 for now.

The U.S. Housing Market

Existing Home Sales
This paper is being written well before the year-end numbers come out, but I expect 2018 home sales will be about 3.5% lower than the prior year. Sales started to slow last spring as we breached affordability limits and more homes came on the market. In 2019, I anticipate that home sales will rebound modestly and rise by 1.9% to a little over 5.4 million units.

Existing Home Prices
We will likely end 2018 with a median home price of about $260,000 – up 5.4% from 2017. In 2019 I expect prices to continue rising, but at a slower rate as we move toward a more balanced housing market. I’m forecasting the median home price to increase by 4.4% as rising mortgage rates continue to act as a headwind to home price growth.

New Home Sales
In a somewhat similar manner to existing home sales, new home sales started to slow in the spring of 2018, but the overall trend has been positive since 2011. I expect that to continue in 2019 with sales increasing by 6.9% to 695,000 units – the highest level seen since 2007.

That being said, the level of new construction remains well below the long-term average. Builders continue to struggle with land, labor, and material costs, and this is an issue that is not likely to be solved in 2019. Furthermore, these constraints are forcing developers to primarily build higher-priced homes, which does little to meet the substantial demand by first-time buyers.

Mortgage Rates
In last year’s forecast I suggested that 5% interest rates would be a 2019 story, not a 2018 story. This prediction has proven accurate with the average 30-year conforming rates measured at 4.87% in November, and highly unlikely to breach the 5% barrier before the end of the year.

In 2019, I expect interest rates to continue trending higher, but we may see periods of modest contraction or levelling. We will likely end the year with the 30-year fixed rate at around 5.7%, which means that 6% interest rates are more apt to be a 2020 story.

I also believe that non-conforming (or jumbo) rates will remain remarkably competitive. Banks appear to be comfortable with the risk and ultimately, the return, that this product offers, so expect jumbo loan yields to track conforming loans quite closely.

Conclusions
There are still voices out there that seem to suggest the housing market is headed for calamity and that another housing bubble is forming, or in some cases, is already deflating.  In all the data that I review, I just don’t see this happening. Credit quality for new mortgage holders remains very high and the median down payment (as a percentage of home price) is at its highest level since 2004.

That is not to say that there aren’t several markets around the country that are overpriced, but just because a market is overvalued, does not mean that a bubble is in place. It simply means that forward price growth in these markets will be lower to allow income levels to rise sufficiently.

Finally, if there is a big story for 2019, I believe it will be the ongoing resurgence of first-time buyers. While these buyers face challenges regarding student debt and the ability to save for a down payment, they are definitely on the comeback and likely to purchase more homes next year than any other buyer demographic.

Posted on January 6, 2019 at 9:08 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts

Waiting and Waiting

Anytime the market cools off we sometimes hear prospective buyers say “I think I’ll wait for the market to correct, then I’ll buy after prices come way down.”

The reality is this… History shows that this wouldn’t be a good strategy.

Our go-to source on price appreciation is the Federal Housing Finance Authority who produces a quarterly home price index.  They have been tracking Larimer County for 41 years.

Their numbers show:

  • Yearly prices have decreased only 6 times in history
  • The average amount of that decrease is only 1.7%

So, someone who is waiting for prices to drop:

  • Might be waiting a long time
  • Might be disappointed that prices didn’t drop by all that much

If you have any questions about any of this info, feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email, have a great weekend!

Posted on December 14, 2018 at 10:09 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts – Good Loan News!

Posted on December 7, 2018 at 2:39 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

96.3 Miles Per Hour

96.3 Miles Per Hour

 

Pretend you have been driving on the Interstate at 100 miles per hour.

Also, pretend you have been doing that for a long time.

Now pretend you slow down to 96.3 miles per hour.

How would that feel?

Probably just a little slower?

96.3 miles per hour is a 3.7% decrease from 100. It may feel slower, but it’s still pretty fast.

How does this relate to real estate?

Well, the market has been moving fast for a long time.

It’s been going 100 miles per hour for at least two years (some would argue even longer).

We’ve recently seen a 3.7% change in terms of number of transactions that are occurring.

There were 3.7% fewer sales in September 2018 versus September 2017 in Fort Collins.

It feels slower because we’ve been driving so fast for so long. But, our market is still moving.

For example, prices are still up. So, remember, that it’s all relative.

Posted on November 12, 2018 at 2:06 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

Absorption Rate Changes

You may have heard the real estate market is changing. While this is true, if you have read any articles that say the sky is falling please understand that scary stories get you to click on news websites, and that’s what they are counting on!

I have tracked the Fort Collins absorption rate since 2011 and keep a running spreadsheet on a quarterly basis of inventory levels and the rate of absorption (the rate at which available homes are sold in a specific real estate market during a given time period. It is calculated by dividing the average number of sales per month by the total number of available homes). The good news for sellers is that inventory is still historically VERY low, it was at only 1.81 months and a balanced market is 6 months. The interesting number was the much lower absorption rate of 55%. We haven’t seen numbers that low on a consistent basis since the end of 2013 heading in to 2014. All this means is that homes are not being “absorbed” in to the market as quickly, so that could mean some great opportunities for buyers. With increasing interest rates and appreciation still on the horizon, now could be a good time to find a home and potentially not even have to compete with 10 other offers (Buyers should be cheering for that right now!).

If you have any questions on how this data could affect your decision to buy or sell, just give me a call or shoot me an email. I’d be happy to take you to coffee or lunch to discuss!

Posted on October 29, 2018 at 1:51 pm
Paul Hunter | Category: About the area, Buyer Tips, Fort Collins Real Estate, Investment, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , ,