Spring in Summer

This year the Spring market is occurring in the Summer.

Typically the busiest months for real estate along the Front Range are April, May and June.

This year, because showing activity was restricted in the Spring months, we are seeing robust activity this Summer.

Here’s an indicator.  Sales through July 2020 versus July 2019 are up:

12.6% in Metro Denver

13.7% in Northern Colorado

To see double-digit increases in sales despite was is occurring in the National economy, is nothing short of remarkable.


Posted on July 31, 2020 at 8:30 am
Paul Hunter | Posted in About the area, Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , , , , ,

Housing Math

It’s interesting to look at what population growth means for housing.

On average, along the Front Range, 2.5 people live in each housing unit.

What that means is 4 housing units are needed for every 10 people who live here.

So, for every 1000 new people moving to our area, 400 new housing units are required.

The population of Metro Denver is just under 3,000,000 and the population of Northern Colorado is just over 650,000.

Assuming the Front Range grows in population at 2% per year, that means 60,000 new people in Metro Denver and 13,000 new people in Northern Colorado each year.

To house those people, 24,000 new housing units need to be built per year in Metro Denver and 5,200 in Northern Colorado.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.


Posted on July 17, 2020 at 9:30 am
Paul Hunter | Posted in About the area, Blog, Friday Fun Facts, Investment, Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

Not Taxing

Pop quiz…

Which state has the lowest effective property tax rates?

It’s not Colorado. But, if you guessed Colorado you’re close!

Hawaii has the lowest effective rate at .27%.

Colorado is ranked 3rd at .53%.

New Jersey is the highest at 2.47%

So, Colorado’s property tax rate is one fifth of New Jersey.

It’s also one third of Michigan and Ohio, and one half of Oregon and Washington.

The out of state clients we work with are usually pleasantly surprised that our local property tax rates are so much lower compared to where they are moving from.

It’s another benefit of owning real estate here.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.


Posted on July 3, 2020 at 2:39 pm
Paul Hunter | Posted in About the area, Buyer Tips | Tagged , , , , , ,

Caught Up

We’ve been waiting for June to catch up. It finally happened (almost).

Back in April, real estate activity was significantly limited and the showing of property was restricted which caused the number of closed properties in May and early June to be much lower than last year.

Bottom line, fewer properties going under contract in April caused fewer closings 30 to 45 days later.

Closed properties in May were down compared to 2019 by 44% in Northern Colorado and 43% in Metro Denver.

Then activity jumped significantly in May. The number of properties going under contract was way up compared to last year.

We’ve been wondering when we would see this sales activity reflected in the number of closed properties.

Well, it finally happened (almost).

The number of closings so far in June compared to the same time period through June of 2019 is only down 1.8% in Northern Colorado and 1.6% in Metro Denver.

In both markets, there are only a handful of closings separating activity in June 2020 versus June 2019.

By the end of the month, when all the transactions are tallied up, we expect that June of this year will out pace June of last year in terms of number of transactions.

This is significant not only because of COVID-19, but also because of the reduced inventory compared to last year. Quite simply, there are fewer homes to buy.
All of this speaks to the health and resiliency of the Front Range market.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.


Posted on June 26, 2020 at 1:35 pm
Paul Hunter | Posted in About the area, Homes for Sale, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Rate Meaning

Mortgage interest rates have hit another record low this week.

Mortgage applications for purchases just hit an 11-year high.

Rates are at a level that many people could never have imagined.

Here’s something that is surprising to many people…

Rates are 1.5% lower than they were just two years ago.

Here’s what that means for buyers…

Pretend someone is looking at a $500,000 home and they will have a 20% down payment.

The difference in monthly payment is $320 between two years ago and today.

Obviously that is a significant amount of money.

Imagine what a person could do with $320 per month.

The fact that rates are at record lows is one of many reasons that the market is so strong right now and prices continue to appreciate at healthy levels.


Posted on June 19, 2020 at 12:24 pm
Paul Hunter | Posted in About the area, Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

Special Event

On Wednesday April 22nd you are invited to a special online event with Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.

He will be giving his insights into the U.S. economy and what that means for real estate along the Front Range of Colorado.

You will hear the answers to the biggest questions we are hearing from clients now like “do you think housing prices will crash?”

This event is exclusively for clients and friends of Windermere Real Estate. To receive the registration link simply reply to this email or reach out to your Windermere real estate broker.

Many of you have heard Matthew speak at our Market Forecast events we hold each year in January. He is famous for making complex economic dynamics very simple to understand.

You will get useful and valuable information which will give you clarity about where the market is headed and when we can expect the economy to improve.

For example Matthew predicts unemployment to hit 15% by the end of June, but then to improve to 8% by year-end and 6% by this time next year.

Again, if you would like the link just reply to this email or reach out to your Windermere broker.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Shelter in Place and Social Distancing very seriously. Our people are working at home, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.


Posted on April 17, 2020 at 1:03 pm
Paul Hunter | Posted in About the area, Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Homes for Sale, Investment, Real Estate, Seller Tips | Tagged , , ,

Vital Signs

Here are the vital signs for the Northern Colorado market.

First, Larimer County:

  • Average prices are up 2.4%
  • Number of transactions is down 2.5%
  • Inventory is up 11.9%
  • Days on market is up 4.1%

Now, Weld County:

  • Average prices are up 4.3%
  • Number of transactions is up 3.6%
  • Inventory is up 12.9%
  • Days on market is flat (same as last year)

What this means is prices are still going up, just not as fast as they were a couple of years ago. More inventory is coming on the market which is great news for buyers.


Posted on December 13, 2019 at 4:29 pm
Paul Hunter | Posted in About the area, Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts, Seller Tips |

County by County

Metrostudy, who in our opinion is the leader in new home research, recently did a study on the average price of a new home in each of the Front Range Counties.

Here are some interesting takeaways…

If you want to find the least expensive new home on the Front Range, the places to look are Weld County and El Paso County.

  • Weld County Average New Home Price = $411,269
  • El Paso County Average New Home Price = $427,361

The most expensive place for a new home is in Boulder County (no surprise) at $698,208.

Jefferson County has the largest difference between the average price of a new home and the average price of a resale home: $664,600 vs. $510,003.

Here’s the County by County breakdown of the average price of a new single-family home:

Boulder = $698,208
Jefferson = $664,600
Douglas = $624,315
Broomfield = $612,779
Denver = $581,480
Arapahoe = $545,943
Larimer = $507,105
Adams = $480,464
El Paso = $427,361
Weld = $411,269​

If you want to see even more insights about the Colorado market so that you can make really good decisions about your real estate, you are welcome to watch this complimentary webinar, just click HERE.


Posted on December 6, 2019 at 3:11 pm
Paul Hunter | Posted in About the area, Buyer Tips, Friday Fun Facts |

Compound Effect

If you have driven on I-25 lately you may have noticed that the Front Range is a popular place.

The projections show that it will only get more popular in the future.

Today, 4.8 million people live along the Front Range from Fort Collins down to Pueblo.

In 2030, just 11 short years from now, 5.7 million people will live here.  Yes, that’s almost 1 million more than today.

This is all according to the Colorado State Demographers Office.

While this seems like a big increase, keep in mind that this assumes that population growth occurs at a fairly modest 1.7% per year.

It seems that our state will continue to grow and there will continue to be a demand for housing.


Posted on July 19, 2019 at 3:28 pm
Paul Hunter | Posted in About the area, Fort Collins Real Estate |

New Gardner Report!

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy continues to grow with the addition of 44,800 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months. This represents a reasonable growth rate of 1.7%. As stated in last quarter’s Gardner Report, we continue to see a modest slowdown in employment gains, but that’s to be expected at this stage of the business cycle. I predict that employment growth in Colorado will pick back up as we move through the year, adding a total of 70,000 new jobs in 2019, which represents a growth rate of 2.6%.

In February, the state unemployment rate was 3.7%, up from 2.9% a year ago. The increase is essentially due to labor force growth, which rose by more than 84,000 people over the past year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report haven’t moved much in the past year, but Boulder saw a modest drop (2.7%), and the balance of the state either remained at the same level as a year ago or rose very modestly.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the first quarter of 2019, 11,164 homes sold — a drop of 3% compared to the first quarter of 2018 and down 13.5% from the fourth quarter of last year. Pending sales in the quarter were a mixed bag. Five counties saw an increase, but five showed signs of slowing.
  • The only market that had sales growth was Adams, which rose 4.9%. The rest of the counties contained in this report saw sales decline, with a significant drop in the small Park County area.
  • I believe the drop in the number of home sales is partially due to the significant increase in listings (+45.6%), which has given would-be home buyers more choice and less need to act quickly.
  • As mentioned above, inventory growth in the quarter was significant, but I continue to believe that the market will see sales rise. I expect the second half of the year to perform better than the first.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, but the rate of growth is tapering. The average home price in the region rose just 2.1% year-over-year to $456,243. Home prices were .3% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2018.
  • I anticipate that the drop in interest rates early in the year will likely get more buyers off the fence and this will allow prices to rise.
  • Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 21.9%. We still attribute this rapid increase to it being a small market. Only Clear Creek County experienced a drop in average home price. Similar to Park County, this is due to it being a very small market, making it more prone to significant swings.
  • Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets but that may be offset by the drop in interest rates.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in Colorado rose five days compared to the first quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in two counties — Gilpin and Park — compared to the first quarter of 2018. The rest of the counties in this report saw days-on-market rise modestly with the exception of the small Clear Creek market, which rose by 26 days.
  • In the first quarter of 2019, it took an average of 42 days to sell a home in the region, an increase of four days compared to the final quarter of 2018.
  • Job growth drives housing demand, but buyers are faced with more choice and are far less frantic than they were over the past few years. That said, I anticipate the late spring will bring more activity and sales.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the first quarter of 2019, I have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I am watching listing activity closely to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth; however, the trend for 2019 will continue towards a more balanced market.

 

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.


Posted on May 2, 2019 at 3:13 pm
Paul Hunter | Posted in About the area, Buyer Tips, Evans Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Investment, Johnstown Real Estae, Longmont Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Real Estate, Seller Tips, Wellington Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,