This is a tale of two Counties.
When it comes to new home activity, there is a big difference between Larimer and Weld Counties.
Larimer County new home starts are down 10% and new home closings are down 15% compared to last year.
Weld County new home starts are up 18% and new home closings are up 8% compared to last year.
This is all according to the new home research experts and Metrostudy.
So why the difference? It comes down to price and availability.
There is more land available for new home development in Weld County.
Plus, the land tends to be less-expensive than Larimer which means that builders can deliver a lower-priced product and reach a larger pool of buyers.
The average price of a new home in Larimer County is $507,105 while the average new home price in Weld is $411,269.
Home Builder’s confidence in Baby Boomer buyers is at an all time high.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) surveys their members each quarter to discover what they expect of future sales.
The builders base a large part of their answer on how many people are visiting their sales centers and model homes versus the same time last year.
The results in their most recent survey show that builders have never been more confident about buyers who are 55 and older.
The confidence index for this age group is actually double of what it was in 2012. The NAHB sites low interest rates and strong job growth as the reasons for the high confidence.
Right next to the Spring Creek trail, minutes to Old Town, and modern design make this a home you should come see today!
Here is a fact…
If you have ever thought about owning a new home, the last two months of the year are usually the best time to make that happen.
Many builders have year-end goals and sales quotas to hit. If they have a “standing inventory” of homes that are completed but not sold, they are typically motivated to sell these homes by the end of the year.
This dynamic can be especially true for publicly-traded builders who are even more motivated to hit year-end sales numbers.
Up and down the Front Range there are beautiful new homes in fantastic neighborhoods. The builders of these homes may be happy to make concessions and provide incentives as long as you close by year-end.
We just recently helped a buyer with a very compelling incentive package from a builder which included a lower price, additional landscaping and window coverings.
If you would like more details about these kinds of opportunities, reach out and we can help.
What is the most active price range in Northern Colorado? Take a guess…
- $300,000 to $400,000
- $400,000 to $500,000
- $500,000 to $750,000
- $750,000 and above
By far, the most active price range is $300,000 to $400,000 with 60% more closed transactions than the $400,000 to $500,000 range and 400% more than homes priced $750,000 and above.
However, this lower price range does not have the most inventory. The price range with the greatest selection of homes is $500,000 to $750,000.
The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere real estate agent.
Colorado’s economy picked up, adding 64,900 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months — a growth rate of 2.4%. Over the past three months, the state added an impressive 28,300 new jobs.
In August, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%, down from 3.4% a year ago. Unemployment rates in all the counties contained in this report were lower than a year ago. It is fair to say that all markets are now at full employment.
- In the third quarter of 2019, 17,562 homes sold. This is an increase of 5.1% compared to the third quarter of 2018 but 1.6% lower than the second quarter (which can be attributed to seasonality). Pending sales — a sign of future closings —rose 9.7%, suggesting that closings in the final quarter of 2019 are likely to show further improvement.
- Seven counties contained in this report saw sales growth, while four saw sales activity drop. I am not concerned about this because all the markets that experienced slowing are relatively small and, therefore, subject to significant swings.
- I was pleased to see an ongoing increase in the number of homes for sale (+16.9%), which means home buyers have more choice and feel less urgency.
- Inventory levels are moving higher, and demand for housing appears to be quite strong. As I predicted last quarter, home sales rose in the third quarter compared to a year ago.
- Home prices continue to trend higher, with the average home price in the region rising 3.8% year-over-year to $477,776.
- Interest rates are at very competitive levels and are likely to remain below 4% for the balance of the year. As a result, prices will continue to rise but at a more modest pace.
- Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 7.8%. We also saw strong growth in Weld County, which rose 7.4%. Home prices dropped in Clear Creek County, but, as mentioned earlier, this is a small market so I don’t believe this is indicative of an ongoing trend.
- Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets and this will act as a modest headwind to ongoing price growth.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report rose seven days compared to the third quarter of 2018.
- The amount of time it took to sell a home rose in all counties compared to the third quarter of 2018.
- It took an average of 30 days to sell a home in the region — an increase of 1 day compared to the second quarter of this year.
- The Colorado housing market is still performing well, and the modest increase in the length of time it took to sell a home is a function of greater choice in homes for sale and buyers taking a little longer to choose a home.
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
For the third quarter of 2019, I continue the trend I started last summer and have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I continue to closely monitor listing activity to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth. However, the trend for 2019 will continue to be a move toward a more balanced market.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
The real estate research firm Core Logic just produced their latest Homeowner Equity Insights report.
Some interesting tidbits:
- 63% of all properties nationally have a mortgage
- Homeowners with mortgages collective realized a $428 billion rise in equity over last year, an increase of 4.8%
- Only 3.8% of all mortgaged properties have negative equity (where the loan is greater than the value of the home)
- 10 years ago 26% of all mortgaged properties had negative equity
It’s no surprise that for just about every homeowner, their real estate represents the largest portion of their net worth.
Check out these numbers from the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances:
Median Net Worth in the U.S. = $97,300
Median Net Worth of a Renter = $5,200
Median Net Worth of a Homeowner = $231,400
Some fascinating research from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors…
37% of properties that sold last month along the Front Range had a price reduction at some point during the listing period.
Property owners who have to reduce their price take an average of 58 days to receive an offer.
Those who don’t have to reduce their price only take 13 days.
This stat obviously speaks to the importance of pricing your property right on day one.
Seventy-five major metro markets have seen home prices bounce back to above their pre-recession peaks.
Metro Denver has seen the biggest bounce with home values 91% above its previous high in 2007 , according to the Home Price Recovery Index from HSH.com.
“Aside from routinely strong home price appreciation, it’s important to know that the Denver metro’s housing ‘bust’ in 2008 was relatively short and shallow,” said Keith Gumbinger, the report’s author.
The peak-to-trough for home values was only three years long and the total decline in value was just under 8 percent in Metro Denver, he said.
By contrast, a half-dozen large metros have seen home prices more than double from their lows and still not reach the old highs. On that list are Las Vegas, Sacramento, Calif., and Cape Coral, Fla.