We have our pulse on the high-end luxury market.
The activity in price ranges over $1,000,000 is an effective indicator of the health of the overall market.
If buyers for luxury properties are active, it tells us that “smart money” is confident about real estate in Metro Denver.
So far this year, 1671 luxury properties have sold. This is 75 more than had sold at this same time last year and 440 more than 2017.
It seems “smart money” is confident.
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Rates hit near-historic lows this week and are now at 3.49% for a 30-year mortgage.
There have only been two other times in history when rates have been this low- April 2013 and October 2016.
It’s interesting to see what happened soon after bottoming out these last two times.
In April of 2013 rates hit 3.41%. By August 2013 they had jumped to 4.40%.
Rates bottomed again in October 2016 at 3.42%. Just two months later in December 2016 they were 4.32%.
Each time the increase was nearly 1% within just a few months.
So, if history proves itself as a guide, we can’t expect these rates to last for long.
The latest report from the Federal Housing Finance Authority is hot off the press. They rank 241 major metropolitan areas across the U.S. for yearly home price appreciation.
They show that, nationally, home prices have gone up 4.99% over the last 12 months.
Here’s how the major cities rank in Colorado among the 241:
#22 Greeley = 7.94%
#27 Colorado Springs = 7.64%
#63 Fort Collins = 6.34%
#133 Denver = 4.83%
#188 Boulder = 3.41%
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a well-known report in the real estate industry and a valuable way to gauge what is happening in various markets across the Nation.
The report tracks home price appreciation in the 20 largest markets in the country.
Their most recent report shows that, Nation-wide, home prices are up 2.1% year-over-year. Last year prices were rising at 6.3%. So, prices are still going up but not as fast as they were.
The city with the highest appreciation over the last 12 months is Phoenix with 5.8% growth followed closely by Las Vegas at 5.5%.
Denver came in at 3.4% which makes it tied for 8th place out of the 20 cities.
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For home sellers who would like to move to a new home this year, there is a window of time that is closing as we head into the Fall months.
Most people know that the Spring and Summer are the most active months for real estate and that activity trails off into the Fall and Winter.
Here are the specific numbers behind this…
The number of homes sold along the Front Range in November tends to be between 15% and 29% lower than September.
That means the best window of time for current sellers to obtain a contract from a buyer and close by the end of the year will occur over the next 45 days.
For sellers who have homes on the market today, it is time to ensure that:
- The home is priced right versus the competition
- All of the marketing elements are in place
- It is easy for a buyer to make an offer on the home
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So how much real estate is sold in Northern Colorado?
As it turns out, a lot!
Last month alone there were 1,099 single family homes that sold in Larimer and Weld Counties
The average price was $429,144 which means the total sales volume for one month was $471,629,129 (almost a half a billion)!
Over the last 12 months, just over $4.5 billion worth of single-family homes have sold.
That’s a lot of real estate!
With interest rates so low, one could argue that money is essentially on sale.
It’s actually half off.
30-year mortgage rates hit 3.75% which is exactly half of their long term average.
Rates have averaged 7.5% over the last 40 years so today buyers are getting half of that rate.
The “sale” on mortgage rates creates a significant savings in monthly payment because of the 1%/10% rule.
For every 1% change in interest rate, the monthly payment will change roughly 10%.
So when rates go up to 4.75%, a buyer’s payment will be 10% higher.
For example, the principal and interest payment on a $400,000 home with a 20% down payment at today’s rates is $1,482.
If rates were 1% higher, the payments jump up to $1,669.