Waiting and Waiting

The bones of this ranch home in Evans at 3834 Belmont Ave is well maintained with only one neighbor with vacant land to the south. Very large kitchen with tile floors, and two living rooms! Great big backyard. Home is close to shopping, with easy access to Highways 85 and 34. Roof will be new before closing. Seller has loved living in this home for a long time, and it’s ready for your vision to make it your own. Come see it today! Call for your private showing at (970) 673-7285 for more information or click the link below for more details.

http://paulhunterrealestate.com/listing/88746714

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

In August, the state unemployment rate was 2.9%. This matches the level seen a year ago. Unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report rose between August 2017 and August 2018 but this is not actually a concern. Growth in the workforce is not only due to recent college graduates, but also discouraged workers who are starting to look for work again and this puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate. All of Colorado’s metropolitan areas are showing unemployment rates at around 4% or lower, suggesting that the regional economies are at, or close to, full employment.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

• In the third quarter of 2018, 16,550 homes sold — a drop of 6.2% compared to the third quarter of 2017.
• Sales rose in just two of the 11 counties contained in this report. Gilpin County again led the way, with sales rising by an impressive 21.1% compared to third quarter of last year. There was also a significant increase in Clear Creek County. Sales fell the most in Arapahoe County.
• Slowing sales in the quarter can, to a degree, be attributed to continued home price growth, but I believe it is more a function of the rapid rise in the number of homes for sale. The number of listings in third quarter rose by 5.4% over the same period in 2017, but was up by 31.2% compared to the second quarter of this year.
• What the numbers are telling us is that inventory growth is giving buyers more choice and they are being far more selective — and patient — before making an offer on a home.

HOME PRICES

• Even with the rapid rise in listings and slowing home sales, prices continue to trend higher. The average home price in the region rose 7.9% year-over-year to $460,982. However, the average price dropped 4% between second and third quarters.
• The smallest price gains in the region were in Park County, where prices rose by a fairly modest 3.6%.
• Appreciation was strongest in Clear Creek County, where prices rose 10%. All other counties in this report saw gains relative to the third quarter of 2017.
• Affordability is becoming an issue in many Colorado markets and this, in concert with rising inventory levels, has started to dampen home price growth. Although I do not expect prices to drop, I do think price gains will moderate over the next few quarters.

DAYS ON MARKET

• The average number of days it took to sell a home in Colorado remained at the same level as a year ago.
• The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in three counties: Gilpin, Clear Creek, and Larimer. The rest of the counties in this report saw days on market rise by only a couple of days or less.
• In the third quarter of 2018, it took an average of 24 days to sell a home. It took less than a month to sell a home in all but one county.
• Housing demand is still solid and, as long as homes are priced appropriately, they will continue to sell in less time than historic averages.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

96.3 Miles Per Hour

You may have heard the real estate market is changing. While this is true, if you have read any articles that say the sky is falling please understand that scary stories get you to click on news websites, and that’s what they are counting on!

I have tracked the Fort Collins absorption rate since 2011 and keep a running spreadsheet on a quarterly basis of inventory levels and the rate of absorption (the rate at which available homes are sold in a specific real estate market during a given time period. It is calculated by dividing the average number of sales per month by the total number of available homes). The good news for sellers is that inventory is still historically VERY low, it was at only 1.81 months and a balanced market is 6 months. The interesting number was the much lower absorption rate of 55%. We haven’t seen numbers that low on a consistent basis since the end of 2013 heading in to 2014. All this means is that homes are not being “absorbed” in to the market as quickly, so that could mean some great opportunities for buyers. With increasing interest rates and appreciation still on the horizon, now could be a good time to find a home and potentially not even have to compete with 10 other offers (Buyers should be cheering for that right now!).

If you have any questions on how this data could affect your decision to buy or sell, just give me a call or shoot me an email. I’d be happy to take you to coffee or lunch to discuss!

What’s Starting?

Here are some interesting stats from our friends at Metro Study who study new home activity along the Front Range.

• New home starts are up 14% compared to last year – this is really good news and is helping to relieve the shortage of housing inventory
• Every product type saw an increase in starts compared to last year (single family, townhome and condominium)
• Condominiums saw the largest increase in starts by a long shot, up 112% over last year- this is excellent news for first time buyers and those looking for product in lower price ranges.

Any questions about this stuff? Give me a ring or shoot me an email and I can buy you a cup of coffee!